Derby and Logic, by Stat Man: chart

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Sunday, December 9, 2012

Results & Table for 10 December

What a day of bouts. Junior derby now underway in Wales, what a wonderful era we live in now.

Also, #9 Tiger Bay lost a close one to #2 Glasgow, 113-107. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough to move them up to #8, but did move them up 10 ranking points, over 30 clear of #10.

#70 Mean Valley slipped 162-196 to #85 Birmingham Blitz Dames [B], moving the two closer to each other on the table.

Dublin [A]#18 & [B]#68 both defeated Manchester [A]#32 & [B]#86, lifting the A-team further up the chart. Manchester end the short tour winless, but undoubtedly learned a few lessons to work on over the holidays.

#14 Hot Wheel "settled their score" in serious fashion, 296-71, over #27 Dolly Rocket. However, neither move, indicating that it was the expected performance.

Full Table:

		Team	Wins	Losses	Rank Pts
	1	London Rollergirls	2	0	237.8
	2	Glasgow Roller Derby	7	1	159.2
	3	Central City Rollergirls	6	4	129.8
	4	Rainy City Roller Girls	3	2	124.0
	5	London Rockin Rollers	6	2	116.6
+1	6	Leeds Roller Dolls	4	4	110.7
-1	7	Auld Reekie Roller Girls	5	7	108.5
	8	London Rollergirls [B]	3	0	100.2
	9	Tiger Bay Brawlers	6	3	85.5
+1	10	Brighton Rockers	5	1	51.0
-1	11	Big Bucks High Rollers	4	4	50.6
	12	Hellfire Harlots	6	2	47.0
	13	Middlesbrough Milk Rollers	6	2	41.9
	14	Hot Wheel Roller Derby	7	4	41.2
+1	15	Birmingham Blitz Dames	4	4	38.0
+2	16	Sheffield Steel Roller Girls	2	5	33.6
	17	Lincolnshire Bombers	2	6	33.2
+2	18	Dublin Roller Girls	6	2	31.9
+2	19	London Rollergirls [C]	1	2	31.3
+2	20	Royal Windsor Rollergirls	4	2	29.8
-6	21	Southern Discomfort	9	0	25.1
+2	22	Croydon Roller Derby	4	4	24.4
-4	23	Quad Guards	7	2	24.3
+1	24	Bristol Roller Derby	8	3	23.8
+1	25	Newcastle Roller Girls	5	4	23.1
-3	26	Lincolnshire Rolling Thunder	2	0	22.4
	27	Dolly Rockit Rollers	4	8	22.3
+5	28	London Rockin Rollers [B]	0	3	21.0
	29	Leeds Roller Dolls [B]	2	3	20.6
+1	30	Glasgow Roller Derby [B]	5	2	20.1
-1	31	Kent Rollergirls	3	2	19.5
	32	Manchester Roller Derby	6	5	19.0
-5	33	Tyne & Fear	7	3	17.9
+1	34	Central City Rollergirls [B]	2	4	16.6
-1	35	Expendables	4	4	13.5
+2	36	Dundee Roller Girls	5	1	13.2
+4	37	Liverpool Roller Birds	1	6	12.7
-1	38	Auld Reekie Roller Girls [B]	2	2	12.5
+3	39	Rainy City Roller Girls [B]	3	4	12.0
-4	40	New Wheeled Order	5	8	12.0
+2	41	Cork City Firebirds	0	2	11.9
-2	42	Granite City Roller Girls	1	4	11.7
-4	43	Inhuman League	5	10	11.2
	44	Seaside Sirens Roller Girls	4	3	10.5
	45	Imposters Roller Girls	2	3	8.8
+2	46	Romsey Town Rollerbillies	3	5	8.6
-1	47	Plymouth City Roller Girls	3	2	8.3
+1	48	Severn Roller Torrent	0	6	7.1
-2	49	Crash Test Brummies	1	7	6.3
	50	Newcastle Roller Girls [B]	7	1	6.1
	51	Cardiff Roller Collective	5	0	6.0
	52	Sheffield Steel Roller Girls [B]	4	4	5.6
	53	Lincolnshire Bombers [B]	1	4	5.0
	54	Hulls Angels Roller Dames	0	6	4.7
	55	Belfast Roller Derby	3	4	4.5
	56	Tiger Bay Brawlers [B]	3	1	4.4
+2	57	Dolly Rockit Rollers [B]	3	2	4.1
-1	58	South West Angels of Terror	3	0	4.1
-1	59	Wolverhampton Honour Rollers	1	2	3.7
+1	60	Central City Rollergirls [C]	3	0	3.6
-1	61	Jakey Bites	0	5	2.9
	62	Milton Keynes Concrete Cows	5	1	2.9
+1	63	Liverpool Roller Birds [B]	1	2	2.7
-1	64	Swansea City Roller Derby	3	4	2.6
	65	Bruising Banditas	2	1	2.5
+2	66	Furness Firecrackers	1	4	2.5
+2	67	Nottingham Roller Girls	0	2	2.4
-2	68	Dublin Roller Girls [B]	3	1	2.4
+1	69	Rebellion Roller Derby	4	3	2.2
-3	70	Mean Valley Roller Girls	3	2	1.9
	71	Oxford Roller Derby	3	5	1.8
	72	Bristol Roller Derby [B]	2	0	1.8
+2	73	Portsmouth Roller Wenches	3	0	1.6
-1	74	Middlesbrough Milk Rollers [B]	0	2	1.5
+3	75	Limerick Roller Derby	0	2	1.4
+1	76	Norfolk Brawds	2	2	1.4
-1	77	Wakey Wheeled Cats	1	2	1.4
-4	78	Fair City Rollers	0	4	1.4
	79	Fierce Valley Roller Girls	1	2	1.2
	80	Hell's Belles	1	5	1.0
+1	81	Wiltshire Roller Derby	0	3	0.9
-1	82	Bedfordshire Roller Girls	2	3	0.9
+1	83	Preston Roller Girls	1	1	0.9
-1	84	Shoetown Slayers	0	3	0.8
+3	85	Birmingham Blitz Dames [B]	1	2	0.8
-1	86	Manchester Roller Derby [B]	2	3	0.8
-1	87	Vendetta Vixens	0	5	0.6
-1	88	Evolution Rollergirls	1	3	0.4
	89	Wirral Whipiteres	0	3	0.2

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Greater UK Derby Chart, 11-November

The rankings presented here are in accordance with the rules and consider Rollin News as the authoritative source for bout scores concerning UK & Ireland teams. If a score is not listed as open or public on that source, it will not be included in this ranking.

Disclaimer aside, here you go.

Women's UK & Ireland derby chart 28-Oct

UK & France men's chart, 20-Oct

WFTDA's new playoff structure

Let me open by saying like like like like like. I really like the idea of 4 1st round playoff tournaments, rather than regions. Some of the regions are weaker than others, and it makes sense to take the top 40 worldwide, rather than the top 10 from some geographical and uneven regions.

What did they mean by S-Curve seeding?

Well, simple seeding's easy to conceive of, but a 40 team tournament makes things complex. The theory is that the total rank of each "branch" of the tournament be equal, and to do this one fills in the chart below in an S-curve type manner. Each team is represented by its rank, which becomes its "seed." Follow the counting numbers in order, and you'll see.

A	B	C	D
1	2	3	4
8	7	6	5
9	10	11	12
16	15	14	13
17	18	19	20
24	23	22	21
25	26	27	28
32	31	30	29
33	34	35	36
40	39	38	37
Total
205	205	205	205

So this way, each of the four 1st round tornaments have a total seeding strength of 205. Thus, the four tournaments have been seeded equally and there is no bonus to being in any one in terms of ease of reaching the final.

So it's more fair in theory, but what are the risks?

--First off, rankings are a bit questionable. Glasgow have a 40% chance of beating LRG, and Montreal are one of several teams in the East Regional who were not as highly favoured.

European teams are undervalued, as teams vote for rankings. With the exception of LRG, only Euro teams watch other Euro teams play, and thus they are less likely to be highly voted by North American voters.

This effect is not so great when considering only one region at a time. Voters outside the East region need not concern themselves with Europe. However, when all leagues are grouped together in one ranking, this effect will manifest itself much more strongly.

This, to me, suggests either the computer poll or the DNN power rankings. The first, like the one I run, has no problem ranking large numbers of teams who play unbalanced schedules. The second is totally done by human intuition, but by the intuition of "professional pickers," those who are focussed solely on determining which teams are ranked where. These pickers see every result publicly listed, which are the only ones that should ever count, and thus should have no bias towards one continent or another. Either one eliminates the bias of having open voting.

--Second off, there is a likelihood bordering on a guarantee that some teams will have to travel much further to their 1st round tournament. Right now, a similar structure is used by the NCAA basketball tournament in the USA, where the top ranked teams are assigned to the location nearest them, and teams seeded further down must play where their rankings assign them.

This system would work in derby, but so would an adjustment to what's been discussed above. If a human poll were used to determine the rankings, everyone would acknowledge that there is some uncertainty between who's picked at 8 versus 9, etc. Thus, a selection committee could "fudge" the seeding a little bit to ensure that LRG don't play in California, for example, or Rat City in London.

Another answer would be to choose the four locations spread throughout the USA. Let's say the tournaments are in four cities: Charlotte, NC; Little Rock, AR; Indianapolis, IN; and Portland, OR. The four tournaments are then seeded according to A, B, C, and D in the chart above. After the four tournaments are seeded, they're connected with the four locations, using an algorithm to minimise total mileage travelled. Thus, LRG would likely play in Charlotte, unless they were in the same tournament with Victoria.

And those that weren't selected?

This is one of my favourite parts of the announcement! Instead of simply calling their season over, they'll be introducing a Division II tournament so there'll be more silverware. I'm not the only person who's been suggesting that the WFTDA institute tiered structure like the football league, and now that seems like a more distinct possibility. I'd like to see it expand to 40 if successful, but it's a great move for the WFTDA.

Final verdict?

Very yes. There are still questions which require answering, but this (and the impending rule change) is an opportunity for the WFTDA to make a massive step forward towards making the whole system run more smoothly, evenly, and fairly. I hope, hope, hope that they take the bull by the horns here and help organised derby live up to its expectations.

DNN's power rankings explained

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Women's UK & Ireland derby chart, 30-Sept

Blokes' rankings

I had ranked women's teams and national teams, so why not the men's teams? Here we go:

*Rank*	*Team*	*Rank Pts*	*Bouts*	W	L
1	Quad Guards	197.3	9	7	2
2	Southern Discomfort	192.1	8	8	0
3	Rolling Thunder	128.3	2	2	0
4	The Expendables	107.7	8	4	4
5	Tyne & Fear Roller Derby	107.6	9	6	3
6	New Wheeled Order	84.7	12	4	8
7	The Inhuman League	71.1	11	3	8
8	Crash Test Brummies	59.4	6	0	6
9	The Jakey Bites	20.3	3	0	3

So, the MERDC contributed the majority of bouts to the ranking, and I added the Quad Guards in just to make sure we could feature a larger number of bouts. Turns out, the championships were an upset! Who knew!

There are 34 bouts in the system, 5 are upsets. That's 15%, and a darn good upset rate. Otherwise, now I know just how exciting the Lincolnshire Rolling Thunder can be!

Alright, so now we've got three derby charts: UK & Ireland women, nations, and UK & France men. Keep in mind, the Rank Pts mean different things in each table. They cannot be compared one-to-one between different tables.

Explanation of calculations here.

Roll on!

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Women's UK derby chart, 23-Sept-12

How it works [with as little maths as possible]

Alright, you likely saw the Women's UK & Ireland Derby Chart on the other page. I hope it makes sense. If you think your team's rank is in error, or I have used the team's name rather than the league's, send me an email at Roush.adam.h@gmail.com and I'll sort it for you. Just check on this page first to make sure any bouts which may have been missed are considerable. Thanks!

Also, I will publish a second explanation with full maths soon. Stay tuned if you love linear algebra!

Women's UK derby chart, 17-Sept-2012

In the weekly chart that follows:

Only bouts with public scores between rankable teams within the last 12 months are counted for this chart. As mentioned before, every other sport's ranking scheme has an expiry date for results, and it's time for derby to have the same.
Only teams from regular bouting UK and Ireland leagues are eligible for ranking. Due to the sheer number of leagues, I had to exclude continental Europe from the chart.
A team with fewer than 2 rankable bouts is excluded from the chart. As well, a team that has only played bouts against unrankable teams is excluded from the chart. Both are due to the need for viable data.
Arrows represent change from the previous week's ranking. ⇏ indicates a previously unrankable team's début on the chart. For the sake of this, I ran the rankings for the 10th of September as well.

Derby and Logic, by Stat Man